Category: News

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Economic Update and an Important Message to Parents Market Commentary – August 18, 2020

Late last week the government reported that the U.S. economy created 1.763 million new jobs last month. The expectations had been for 1.48 million. It’s good to see the numbers going in the right direction.

These are huge gains in employment, but it comes after even larger losses. To be sure, the economy is a long way from where it was just six months ago. The unemployment rate is down to 10.2%. We’ve had recessions that peaked with lower unemployment rates. The number of unemployed people dropped by 1.4 million to 16.3 million. The labor-force participation rate is 61.4%, which isn’t as bad as I had expected.

Let’s look at leisure and hospitality, which is a crucial sector for the economy. Leisure and hospitality added 592,000 jobs in July. In May and June, the sector added 3.4 million jobs. That sounds impressive, but leisure and hospitality lost over 8.3 million jobs in March and April.

We had more good news for the jobs market on Thursday, when the jobless-claims report finally fell below one million. The number of folks filing for jobless benefits fell to 963,000. That’s the first time in 20 weeks it came in under one million. Economists had been expecting 1.1 million.

While the jobs market is better, there’s still a long, long way to go. We also saw strong CPI numbers, which surprised me a bit as the increases were the largest in years. Something to continue to watch.

We’re also seeing another move towards cyclical stocks. By this, I mean stocks whose fortunes are closely tied to the broader economy. When cyclicals do well, that’s often though, not always an early sign of an improving economy. Perhaps Wall Street is sensing that the economy will reopen sooner than expected.

An Important Message For Parents Of College-Aged Kids

For those of you like me who are sending their children back to college, there is an important step to take now more than ever as we live through this health crisis and want to protect our kids as much as possible even as they are moving away to a college campus.

For my readers in Georgia, the law states that a person who is 18-years or older is considered an adult. At this point, parents cannot legally access their medical or financial matters. To help make sure that parents can continue protecting their children while they’re away at college, it is a good idea to create two essential estate planning documents: a financial power of attorney and an advance directive for health care. For my readers in other states and other countries, it would be wise to check your state’s laws.

Financial Power of Attorney

A financial power of attorney is someone who is legally authorized to act on another person’s behalf. A financial power of attorney can help with money, real estate, or legal matters. If the student gets sick or becomes incapacitated, the parent with the financial power of attorney can make sure that any bills are paid, and any legal issues are handled appropriately.

If a student becomes incapacitated and they have not named a financial power of attorney, the court will likely appoint a guardian or a conservator to help with any financial or legal issues. That court-appointed individual may not necessarily be the student’s parent.

Advance Directive for Health Care

An advance directive for health care is a legal document in which a person lists their health care and treatment preferences. It puts their doctors on notice about medical decisions if they are otherwise able to communicate those wishes due to an injury or illness. Within the advance directive, a person can designate their medical power of attorney. If a college student designates their mother or father as their medical power of attorney, that parent can speak to their child’s doctor, look at any health care records, and make decisions about their child’s medical treatment.

If a student gets hurt or seriously ill without having an advance directive in place, there could be delays in making urgent health care decisions. If the parent is not named the medical power of attorney, he or she might have to petition the court in order to act on their child’s behalf.

While I don’t practice law, I have a great group of legal experts in my network to help answer your questions. If you want to discuss this further, feel free to contact me and I will do my best to help!

 

Kevin Garrett – Integrated Financial Group

My firm specializes in working with people that experience what we call “Sudden Income.” Typically the income came from one of these events:

1) Accessing and Managing Retirement Assets

2) A Performance Contract (Typically a Sports or Entertainment Contract)

3) Divorce Settlement

4) Inheritance or Insurance Payout

5) Sale of a Business or Stock Options

6) A Personal Injury Settlement

I believe the unique nature of these events requires specialized professional experience, empathy, and communication to deal with both the financial changes and the life changes that inevitably come with them.

My clients value my ability to simplify complex strategies into an actionable plan. They also appreciate that I am open, non-judging and easy to talk to about their dreams and fears. Each client defines financial success differently and my goal is to guide them from where they are now to where they want to be. As my client’s advisor, my goal is to provide them with a lifetime income stream, improving returns, protecting their funds and managing taxes.

Firm Specialties:

  • Retirement Planning For Business Owners & Executives
  • Woman’s Unique Financial Planning Needs
  • Professional Athletes
  • Investment/Asset Allocation Advice
  • Estate Planning
  • Risk Management
  • Strategic Planning

Kevin was listed in The Wall Street Journal as “One of the Financial Advisors In The Southeast That You Need To Know”

Kevin was listed in Forbes Magazine’s Annual Financial Edition as a Five Star Financial Advisor

Kevin has been awarded the FIVE Star Professional Wealth Manager in in Atlanta Magazine in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017,2018 and 2019.

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of Five Star Wealth Managers.

KEVIN GARRETT, AWMA, CFS

Integrated Financial Group

200 Ashford Center North, Ste. 400 | Atlanta, GA 30338

Phone | 770.353.6311

Email | kgarrett@intfingroup.com

Website | kevingarrettifg.com

 

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ITB Partner, Barry Flink Named to Magazine Board

Longtime community leader brings four decades of management experience, including in the hospitality industry.

Barry Flink

Barry Flink, executive vice president and partner of Flex HR, Inc., has been named to the advisory board of Departures Magazine. The publication is a source for high-end travel, restaurants, hotels, and fashion, shopping, art, and culture.

Flink has 40 years of management experience in multiple industries. His favorite jobs have always been in the hospitality industry. He has held senior-level management positions in Westin Hotels & Resorts, InterContinental Hotels, Service America Corporation, the Greyhound Corporation, and the Peasant Restaurants, Inc., based in Atlanta. He began his career in the hospitality industry as the Hyatt Hotel Corporation’s first national management trainee.

Flink is also an executive in residence at Kennesaw State University and has served on the board of directors of Georgia Tech’s College of Management as well as KSU’s Coles College of Business. He has also served on the President’s Advisory Board of Oglethorpe University.

He has been a visiting lecturer at Cornell University, Washington State University, Florida State University, Georgia Tech, Georgia State University, Emory University, and the University of Guelph and Ryerson University in Canada. He also wrote a chapter for a college textbook, “Business Acumen II.”

Flink was board chair of the Edge Connection and has served on the Small Business Council of the Metro Atlanta Chamber of Commerce, the board of directors of the American-Israel Chamber of Commerce, and an advisory board of Saint Joseph’s Hospital.

For More information contact:

Marilyn Pearlman

Atlanta Cause Marketing & PR

Phone: 404-298-6910

Mobile: 404-395-2602

Web: http://www.atlantacausemarketing.com

Email:  mpearlman@atlantacausemarketing.com

 

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Weinstock Lands New Client – Disinfect Group

Ron Weinstock of Weinstock Marketing and ITB Partners lands New Client, Disinfect Group. 

Disinfect Group USA, offers a variety of systems to allow retailers, offices, venues to reopen safely.  Total flexibility of units depending on the size needed. All manufacturing is in the USA. Disinfect Group USA’s  product has the ability to:

  • Disinfect people and their belongings safely – 99.9999% effective
  • Take thermal temperatures
  • Count capacity in/out
  • On product branding
  • Offer LED sponsorship opportunities

Disinfect Group – Sanitation Tunnels

SANITIZING TUNNELS

Dry Fog is an innovative new product that creates an invisible “haze” in our tunnels which are completely safe and approved for use on humans against viruses and bacteria. It works using electrolyzed water technology.

Available with 1 to 5 tunnels and comes as a fogger or a misting sprayer.

 

SANITIZING FOG

Each visitor and worker pass through a completely safe dry fog before

gaining access to your facility.

 

THERMAL IMAGING SCANNER

Screens for elevated body temperature at a safe distance for employees and guests entering your facility. Alerts staff when a high temperature is detected.

 

DIGITAL CAPACITY COUNTER

Add a Body counting camera that helps you know exactly how many people are in your venue or facility at all times.

 

NO-TOUCH SANITIZER DISPENSER

Automatic hand sanitizer dispensers allow everyone to disinfect their hands helping stop the spread of viruses.

 

STAY CLEAN. STAY SAFE.   RETURN TO WORK.

Contact Ron Weinstock for more information.

(310) 663-7669 | ron@weinstockmarketing.com

 

 

Ronald D. Weinstock

Ron Weinstock is an experienced restaurant and retail industry executive, consultant, and entrepreneur.

Over thirty-plus years of successfully launching, building, and revitalizing national and regional brands have positioned Ron Weinstock as a business and marketing leader in industries that include restaurants, financial, health, entertainment, and retailing. Ron is a business and marketing executive with a proven track record and a passion for team building, which/that includes leading cohesive & purpose-driven teams that consistently deliver exceptional results.

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Cash Back Shopping – The Key To A New Competitive Advantage

Phillip Davis

Have you heard of “cashback shopping”?  If you have heard of Rakuten (formerly Ebates), then you have experienced the leading example of business to consumer (B2C) cashback shopping.  In B2C cash back shopping, the cashback is paid directly to the shopper as an incentive to buy.  Why?   It is much less expensive to sell an item on-line than in a brick and mortar store.  Online retailers take a portion of these savings and invest them in cashback advertising to bring more shoppers into their on-line stores and encourage on-line vs. in-store purchases.

This same cashback shopping concept can be also be applied in a business to business (B2B) environment.  The biggest drawback of B2C cashback is that shoppers are reluctant to provide their personal contact information to someone they do not know, in this case, Rakuten.  In the B2B environment, shoppers already have a relationship with the sponsoring organization.  The sponsor might be their bank, church, favorite restaurant, or any number of other organizations.  The key is for the sponsoring organization to have a trusted relationship with the shopper.  In many cases, the sponsor may already have significant personal information on the shopper and be sending the shopper regular communications.

Most organizations with ten thousand plus (10,000+) patrons can benefit through adopting cashback shopping as a component of their on-going promotion program.  The more potential shoppers, the greater the benefit.  The cashback that flows to the organization can be utilized as a donation (for churches and charities), to pay for future purchases (retailers), and to pay a portion of the price of current purchases (grocery stores, insurance providers, and power companies).  Most sponsors keep at least a portion of the cashback to pay expenses and as accretive to profit.

The benefit to the organization can be quite substantial.  For example, a charitable organization that is keeping 100% of cashback as donations can expect to receive roughly $1 million per 10,000 shoppers.  A commercial business will receive the same amount but will likely pass 80% or more on to the shopper in one form or another.  Therefore, a commercial operation keeping 20% of cashback will be retaining roughly $200,000 per 10,000 shoppers.

To learn more about cashback shopping and its potential for your organization, contact Philip A. Davis at pdavishr@comcast.net or 678-977-5578.

Thank you for visiting our blog.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner, ITB Partners

I hope you enjoyed our point of view and would like to receive regular posts directly to your email inbox.  Toward this end, put your contact information on my mailing list.

Your feedback helps me continue to publish articles that you want to read.  Your input is very important to me so; please leave a comment.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner,  ITB Partners

 

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How The Stock Market Can Predict Elections – Market Commentary – July 13

Kevin Garrett – Integrated Financial Group

2020 is an election year, and as we get closer to November, I expect this to replace COVID-19 and the recession at the top of investors’ minds. The makeup of Congress may influence stock market performance, and how stocks and the economy perform prior to the election may forecast who will win.

THE MAKEUP OF CONGRESS IS VERY IMPORTANT

Although all election years feel different, 2020 no doubt may be one of the most unique election years ever. We have a pandemic, a deep recession, extremely heightened partisanship, a mail-in ballot controversy, an unpredictable president, and the oldest presidential candidate ever.

Amazingly, 1940 was the last time the S&P 500 Index was lower during an election year with an incumbent in the White House. Historically, when a president has been up for reelection, it has tended to boost stocks.

Stocks were down big in 2008-but President George W. Bush had finished his two terms. It isn’t about Republican or Democrat-it’s about incumbents trying to boost the economy and stock prices by the time voters go to the polls.

I’m often asked if stocks perform better under a Republican or Democratic president. I take a different view and point out that stocks have tended to do their best when we have a split Congress. Markets tend to like checks and balances to make sure one party doesn’t have too much sway.

When Republicans have controlled both chambers in Washington, DC, on average the S&P 500 has gained13.4% per year and gross domestic product (GDP) has grown 3%. When Democrats have controlled both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the economy did a little better, with GDP growth of 3.3%, while the S&P 500 was up 10.7% on average. Some of the best stock gains in recent memory took place under a split Congress. Stocks gained close to 30% in 1985, 2013, and 2019, all under a split Congress. The average S&P 500 gain with a divided Congress was 17.2% while GDP growth averaged 2.8%, again suggesting markets may prefer split power come November.

WATCH THE ECONOMY

History shows that the US economy has had major bearings on the presidential election outcomes. If there has been a recession during the year or two before the election, the incumbent president has tended to lose. If there were no recession during that time, the incumbent tended to win. Incredibly, the economy has predicted the winning president every year going back to President Calvin Coolidge, when he won despite a recession within two years of the election. But Coolidge inherited a recession when President Warren G. Harding passed away, and by the time people voted in November 1924, the Roaring ’20s had started to take hold, and the economy was strong again.

My analysis suggests the 2020 presidential race is still up in the air. If the economy continues to open up, a vaccine is on the way, and the massive stimulus continues to drive asset prices higher, President Trump’s chances may improve. A weak economy struggling to come out of recession and weaker markets would likely favor challenger former Vice President Joe Biden.

AND WATCH THE STOCK MARKET

Since 1928, the stock market has accurately predicted the winner of the presidential election 87% of the time, including every single election since 1984. It’s quite simple. When the S&P 500 has been higher the three months before the election, the incumbent party usually has won; when stocks were lower, the incumbent party usually has lost.

Think back to 2016, when virtually no one expected Hillary Clinton to lose-except for the stock market. Stocks were quite weak leading up to the election, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down nine days in a row. Copper (a President Trump play on infrastructure) was in the green a record 14 consecutive days.

POTENTIAL POLICY CHANGES

Markets tend to be volatile ahead of elections because of the uncertainty around possible policy changes. In this election, the stakes are particularly high for corporate America because a takeover of the Senate by Democrats and a possible Biden victory reportedly may lead to an increase in the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% and unwind the corporate earnings boost the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act delivered.

Other areas to watch that could impact markets:

* Tighter financial regulation could have some market impact.
* Healthcare should perform well regardless of the election outcome with “Medicare for All” off the table.
* Energy could be hurt by a potential blue wave, but prices may get support from lower production and higher production costs.

So in summary, as we get closer to the November election, how stocks and the economy are doing could be a big signal for who will win the election and be in office in January.

KEVIN GARRETT, AWMA, CFS
Integrated Financial Group
200 Ashford Center North, Ste. 400 | Atlanta, GA 30338
Phone | 770.353.6311
Email | kgarrett@intfingroup.com

Website | kevingarrettifg.com

Thank you for visiting our blog.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner, ITB Partners

I hope you enjoyed our point of view and would like to receive regular posts directly to your email inbox.  Toward this end, put your contact information on my mailing list.

Your feedback helps me continue to publish articles that you want to read.  Your input is very important to me so; please leave a comment.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner,  ITB Partners

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Investor Behavior And The Future Impact On The Market – Market Commentary – June 22, 2020

Kevin Garrett – Integrated Financial Group

Stocks shook off the 5.9% S&P 500 Index drop a week ago Thursday by gaining three days in a row before fading a bit at week’s end. While researching and reading this week, two charts stood out to me that tell us quite a lot about how investors have reacted during this volatile market and what could be next.

Incredibly, nearly a third of all investors over 65 years old sold their full equity holdings. With stocks now back near highs, this is yet another reason to have a plan in place before trouble comes, as making decisions when under duress can lead to the exact wrong decision.

As shown in the above chart, according to data from Fidelity Investments, nearly 18% of all investors sold their full equity holdings between February and May, while a much higher percentage that was closer to retirement (or in retirement) sold. Some might have bought back in, but odds are that many are feeling quite upset with the record bounce back in stocks here.

Along these same lines, investors have recently moved to cash at a record pace. In fact, there is now nearly $5 trillion in money market funds, almost twice the levels we saw this time only five years ago. Also, the past three months saw the largest three-month change ever, as investors ran to the safety of cash. If you were looking for a reason stocks could continue to go higher over the longer term, there really is a lot of cash on the sidelines right now.

 

Stocks are Overbought

Last, I noted a few weeks ago that the extreme overbought nature of stocks here is actually consistent with the start of a new bull run, not a bear market bounce, or the end of a bull market. Adding to this, the spread between the number of stocks above their 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average was near the highest level ever.

Looking at other times that had wide spreads, they took place near the start of major bull markets. Near-term the potential is there for a well-deserved pullback, but going out 6 to 12 months, stocks have consistently outperformed historically.

About Integrated Financial Group

My firm specializes in working with people that experience what we call “Sudden Income.” Typically the income came from one of these events:

1) Accessing and Managing Retirement Assets
2) A Performance Contract (Typically a Sports or Entertainment Contract)
3) Divorce Settlement
4) An inheritance or Insurance Payout
5) Sale of a Business or Stock Options
6) A Personal Injury Settlement

I believe the unique nature of these events requires specialized professional experience, empathy, and communication to deal with both the financial changes and the life changes that inevitably come with them.

My clients value my ability to simplify complex strategies into an actionable plan. They also appreciate that I am open, non-judging, and easy to talk to about their dreams and fears. Each client defines financial success differently and my goal is to guide them from where they are now to where they want to be. As my client’s advisor, my goal is to provide them with a lifetime income stream, improving returns, protecting their funds, and managing taxes.

 

Firm Specialties:

  • Retirement Planning For Business Owners & Executives
  • Woman’s Unique Financial Planning Needs
  • Professional Athletes
  • Investment/Asset Allocation Advice
  • Estate Planning
  • Risk Management
  • Strategic Planning

Kevin was listed in 

The Wall Street Journal as “One of the Financial Advisors In The Southeast That You Need To Know” 

 

Kevin was listed in Forbes Magazine’s Annual Financial Edition as a Five Star Financial Advisor  

 

Kevin has been awarded the FIVE Star Professional Wealth Manager in Atlanta Magazine in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019.

 

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of Five Star Wealth Managers.

 

KEVIN GARRETT, AWMA, CFS
Integrated Financial Group
200 Ashford Center North, Ste. 400 | Atlanta, GA 30338
Phone | 770.353.6311
Email | kgarrett@intfingroup.com

Website | kevingarrettifg.com

Thank you for visiting our blog.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner, ITB Partners

I hope you enjoyed our point of view and would like to receive regular posts directly to your email inbox.  Toward this end, put your contact information on my mailing list.

Your feedback helps me continue to publish articles that you want to read.  Your input is very important to me so; please leave a comment.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner, ITB Partners

 

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UNITE: “WEE WILL…” EXPERIDIGM Enable “E”cosystems; by Mark Grace

Overview

We humans and “E”cosystems (Es) must unite as WeE to preserve and foster the ability to joyfully experience a natural and healthy life. “Es” sustain We with natural air, water, soil, and healthy food, but “Es” are dying from human poisons/pollution and intentional “T”yrant taking. WeE must unite and build meaningful WeE experidigm group rights to ensure WeE ability to survive and pursue healthy experiences. Learn how to create lasting WeE experidigm group rights. Unite and joyfully WeE experidigm together. Live healthy and experience Amness joy. Use Part 4 as a Field Guide to help WeE and “E” successfully survive and experidigm together.

Description

The future of humanity depends on the human ability to better live together and do activities together – I call this experidigming. Our future does not depend on how well we work together in business. We are pretty good at that now. We are poor at living together with and supporting all living entities in ecosystems (“Es”). Over 7.8 billion people are consuming “Es” at an unprecedented rate. Left unmanaged and unchecked, people may consume all “E.” Our future depends on how well We humans respect, steward, and support all living entities in “E.” This book describes how to have We humans and “E” living entities experidigm together as WeE, building a sustaining and thriving relationship for all within the WeE experidigms. One fact is certain – humans cannot survive without the life giving power of “E” to deliver clean air, water, alive soil, and trillions of living entities that share healthy food with humans. WeE experidigm groups can protect, sustain, and foster “E” while defending WeE using experidigm group rights. We and “E” must unite as WeE to sustain life and create the necessary balance of life to sustain daily living. Join a local WeE experidigm group to do activities and receive joy. This book describes how to UNITE and participate in the joyful experience of We and “E” combined WeE.

About The Author

Mark Grace

Described as a rainmaker and innovation leader, Mark Grace lives by the adage, “Aim higher, achieve more!” For Grace, “There will be setbacks, but the good side just points upward and you go upward to better. You might not see better right away, but better is there if you keep looking and seeking. You can avoid, deflect, and ignore the bad people who try and stop your growth.” As an inventor, Grace has received over 18 patents, many trademarks and has been honored with international technology awards. He is the author of a series of personal and corporate “how to grow” opportunity books: 1) Elements of Visual Talking, 2) Soaring to Awesome-Turd Throwers Beware, 3) Choosing Up, 4) Avoid Takers, 5) NEXT: “I Am…” Experidigmer 6) MORE: “We Am…” Experidigmers, 7) GO: “We Will…” Experidigm, and 8) UNITE: “WeE Will…” Experidigm. Grace earned his MBA from Washington University and Chemistry degree from St. Louis University. He is the founder of the growth advisory firm, Beyondvia Technologies. Beyondvia.com offers practical better ways to liberate individuals and organizations to grow and evolve their visions and value. Grace regularly advises global organizations and contributes to leading journals across a myriad of industries. Experidigm.com is the signup gateway to participating in Applied Experidigm Zones (AEZ) and building personal experidigms.

Contact:

Posted on

Seeing Positive Signs In Economic Wreckage

Market Commentary – May 5, 2020

When the employment report for April is released this Friday, the economic damage from the deepest of the Coronavirus shutdowns will become clear.I am estimating that nonfarm payrolls will be down roughly 22 million versus March, and the unemployment rate will skyrocket to around 17.0%, the highest reading since at least 1948.

To put that in perspective, during the subprime-mortgage panic of 2008, payrolls declined 8.7 million over a 25-month period. Now, it looks like we lost almost three times as many jobs in just one month. The highest unemployment rate since the wind-down from World War II was 10.8% at the end of the 1981-82 recession. The jobless rate peaked at 10.0% after the Great Recession.

Unfortunately, I expect the unemployment rate to be even higher in May, and it is very difficult to believe that $2.5 trillion in government spending offset more than 50% of the damage. I hope I am wrong about that, but promising money to companies for payroll expenditures – but only having them able to open at 25% to 40% capacity – will not save many restaurants or bars.

While the economic damage is horrific, there are some positive signs. While 30 million workers filed for unemployment benefits in the past six weeks, those currently receiving benefits (what are called “continuing claims”) are up a smaller 16 million in the first five weeks of that period and will be up around 20 million for the full six-week period. Yes, that’s still awful, but it tells us that the Payroll Protection Plan and areas of actual job creation, such as online retailing and delivery services, are offsetting some of the damage.

This kind of job destruction will be accompanied by a very large decline in GDP. We’re estimating a contraction at a 30% annual rate in the second quarter. But everyone already knows that.

We won’t get that data until late July, and by then I expect the economy to be expanding, albeit from a low base. In fact, I’m already seeing some light at the end of the tunnel. During the week ending Saturday, May 2, 939,790 passengers went through TSA checkpoints at airports. That’s up 26% from the prior week and up 40% from two weeks ago. The amount of motor gasoline supplied has grown three weeks in a row, and is up a total of 16%. Hotel occupancy and railcar traffic are both up from a month ago. This high-frequency data will give a clearer read on the pulse of the economy as we gradually reopen, and is something I review weekly.

Anyone who ventures outside will notice more cars on the road and more activity, including in businesses that are still required to be closed to the public but are preparing for clearance to re-open. Many researchers are using cell-phone location data to track the movement of people. For example, Apple looks at “routing requests” on map applications. In mid-April, both walking and driving requests were down roughly 60% from January 13th. As of Saturday, walking and driving requests were only down 29% and 16%, respectively.

This recession will be brutal, the worst of our lifetimes. But it is not a normal recession, and it will also be short. Investors should keep in mind that, although the weeks ahead will be tough, there are better days beyond them.

 

Kevin Garrett – Integrated Financial Group

My firm specializes in working with people that experience what we call “Sudden Income.” Typically the income came from one of these events:

1) Accessing and Managing Retirement Assets
2) A Performance Contract (Typically a Sports or Entertainment Contract)
3) Divorce Settlement
4) Inheritance or Insurance Payout
5) Sale of a Business or Stock Options
6) A Personal Injury Settlement

I believe the unique nature of these events requires specialized professional experience, empathy, and communication to deal with both the financial changes and the life changes that inevitably come with them.

My clients value my ability to simplify complex strategies into an actionable plan. They also appreciate that I am open, non-judging, and easy to talk to about their dreams and fears. Each client defines financial success differently and my goal is to guide them from where they are now to where they want to be. As my client’s advisor, my goal is to provide them with a lifetime income stream, improving returns, protecting their funds, and managing taxes.

Firm Specialties:

  • Retirement Planning For Business Owners & Executives
  • Woman’s Unique Financial Planning Needs
  • Professional Athletes
  • Investment/Asset Allocation Advice
  • Estate Planning
  • Risk Management
  • Strategic Planning

Kevin was listed in 

The Wall Street Journal as “One of the Financial Advisors In The Southeast That You Need To Know” 

 Forbes Magazine’s Annual Financial Edition as a Five Star Financial Advisor  

Kevin has been awarded the FIVE Star Professional Wealth Manager in Atlanta Magazine in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017,2018, and 2019.

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of Five Star Wealth Managers.

KEVIN GARRETT, AWMA, CFS
Integrated Financial Group
200 Ashford Center North, Ste. 400 | Atlanta, GA 30338
Phone | 770.353.6311
Email | kgarrett@intfingroup.com
Website | kevingarrettifg.com

Posted on

The Economy, Inflation, and Interest Rates Market Commentary – April 23, 2020

 

With each passing week, the economic damage wrought by the Coronavirus and the resulting shutdowns grows larger. It’s not just businesses, both small to large, feeling the pain. Educational institutions, hospitals, churches, not-for-profits, and state and local governments are all finding it hard to remain financially viable.

The US has essentially turned off broad swaths of the private sector – the ultimate and only source of income and wealth creation. Without the private sector, there is no money to pay for government, schools, healthcare, or charitable organizations. To make up for it, the US has resorted to an open-ended expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet (and expanded their power) and huge increases in government borrowing and spending, the likes of which the US has never seen outside of wartime.

As in 2008, many are worried that huge increases in Quantitative Easing and money growth, along with the purchasing of debt directly from the market, will lead to much higher inflation. However, at least for now, that doesn’t appear to be a problem. The consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.4% in March and is up only 1.5% from a year ago. This week, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil was trading at record low levels. This suggests another negative number for the CPI in April.

But the drop in measured consumer prices in March was not just driven by lower energy prices. Other factors included lower prices for hotels, airline fares, and clothing. What do all these categories have in common? A massive drop in customers due to the shutdown.

Sure, hotels are cheap today, but almost no one is using them; hotel occupancy rates are down about 70% from a year ago. Yes, anyone who flies can get cheap seats, but the number of people going through TSA checkpoints is down 96% from a year ago. Clothing prices fell 2% in March as sales at clothing & accessory stores fell 50%. Who had time to buy clothes when you had to stock up on groceries and toilet paper?!?

In other words, prices for the actual items people bought in March probably did not fall as much as the CPI report suggested, and the same argument will probably apply to April, as well. Bottom line: in the near term, while it may look like deflation, that’s not true for the average consumer.

As I look further out, official measures of prices will eventually turn back up. I see multiple broad forces at work on consumer price inflation, which should prevent us from lurching into either ultra-high inflation or Great-Depression-style persistent deflation.

Obviously the Fed’s actions will boost various measures of the money supply. And the unusually generous unemployment benefits for many workers who have recently lost their jobs means those businesses that are trying to ramp up production will have to offer higher wages than usual to attract workers, which could feed through to higher end-prices.

However, in spite of these reasons to fear higher inflation, there is one big reason to avoid fearing hyperinflation: the demand for holding money balances, by both individuals and companies, is going sky high. The precedent of shutting down the economy will make cash King. That’s the only way to survive. So, yes, the money supply will be much higher, but velocity will be much lower; people will hold cash dear.

While I think inflation measures will head towards 3.0% in 2021, higher than it was immediately prior to the Coronavirus, hyperinflation is unlikely.

Interest rates will go up eventually, too, but don’t expect a sharp rebound. After the Great Recession, the Fed didn’t raise short-term rates again until late 2015, when the unemployment rate hit 5.0%. After the expected spike in joblessness in the next couple of months, it’ll be a long time before we get back to 5.0% unemployment. Meanwhile, having witnessed two massive recessions in a row, investors will place an even larger premium on safety and risk-aversion than they have for the past decade, which will hold the 10-year yield down relative to the economic fundamentals we’ll see in the eventual recovery.

We’ve never seen an economic shutdown like this before. The ability of people and the government to panic like this changes nearly every economic calculation. For inflation, there are forces going both ways. Only time will ultimately tell.
Kevin Garrett – Integrated Financial Group
About Kevin

Kevin was listed in 

The Wall Street Journal as “One of the Financial Advisors In The Southeast That You Need To Know” 

Kevin was listed in Forbes Magazine’s Annual Financial Edition as a Five Star Financial Advisor  

 

My firm specializes in working with people that experience what we call “Sudden Income.” Typically the income came from one of these events:

1) Accessing and Managing Retirement Assets
2) A Performance Contract (Typically a Sports or Entertainment Contract)
3) Divorce Settlement
4) Inheritance or Insurance Payout
5) Sale of a Business or Stock Options
6) A Personal Injury Settlement

I believe the unique nature of these events requires specialized professional experience, empathy, and communication to deal with both the financial changes and the life changes that inevitably come with them.

My clients value my ability to simplify complex strategies into an actionable plan. They also appreciate that I am open, non-judging, and easy to talk to about their dreams and fears. Each client defines financial success differently and my goal is to guide them from where they are now to where they want to be. As my client’s advisor, my goal is to provide them with a lifetime income stream, improving returns, protecting their funds, and managing taxes.

 

Firm Specialties:

  • Retirement Planning For Business Owners & Executives
  • Woman’s Unique Financial Planning Needs
  • Professional Athletes
  • Investment/Asset Allocation Advice
  • Estate Planning
  • Risk Management
  • Strategic Planning

Kevin has been awarded the FIVE Star Professional Wealth Manager in Atlanta Magazine in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019.

 

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of Five Star Wealth Managers.
KEVIN GARRETT, AWMA, CFS

Integrated Financial Group

200 Ashford Center North, Ste. 400 | Atlanta, GA 30338

Phone | 770.353.6311

Email | kgarrett@intfingroup.com

Website | kevingarrettifg.com

 

 

 

 

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Business & The Virus

A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself (or ‘seeks refuge’): but the simple pass on, and are punished.  Proverbs 22:3

Ralph Watson

Regardless of where Covid-19 originated, it is an actual virus and it is among us.

Mass hysteria has gripped our country emptying our grocery stores and gun shops and tanking our economy. I’m not making a political statement nor placing blame.  I am simply acknowledging the current reality of our world and the tragic effect it is having on our businesses, large and small.

Let me invite you to step away from the madness for a few minutes for a dispassionate chat about our current situation.

At this point, there is precious little we can do with the country on lockdown.  Our customers are not circulating in the marketplace, but are rather cocooned in their homes possibly shopping online. That doesn’t mean we can’t do ANYthing!

In his seminal book, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, Stephen Covey presented his Time Management Matrix exposing the relationship between Urgent tasks and Important tasks.

Quadrant I was the “Urgent & Important” containing all the fires that business owners face all day long: operational breakdowns, customer complaints, employee disagreements, accounts receivables, job bidding, and the list goes on ad infinitum! This is the quadrant in which we spend most of our waking business hours.

Quadrant II was the “Important but NOT Urgent” containing – honestly – all the most important issues of life: date night with the spouse, children’s ball game or dance recital, thinking & planning, reading important literature, praying or meditating, taking care of our health and on it goes.

The paradox of these two quadrants is that the ONLY way to get Quadrant I under control is to camp out in Quadrant II and DO the Important work of strategic business planning and management self-improvement! As you are able to become proactive and look down the road to see potential dangers, you are able to make those provisions to avoid the fires and reduce the size and tyranny of Quadrant I.

Although this may be the first time our current living generation has seen what is happening, it is not the first time for our country.  Let me acknowledge that during the Great Depression, there were bakeries that went out of business – but there were bakeries that survived. There were clothing stores that went out of business, but there were clothing stores that made it.

The point is that no business segment vanished. Some businesses in every category made it in spite of so many of their competitors folding for good.  So while we are all currently forced out of Quadrant I, now is a great time to take full advantage of the situation to get seriously deep into Quadrant II and not squander this unique opportunity to Be Greater Faster!

Read a management book. Call friends who own businesses to talk about common issues. Engage with a professional consultant – a generalist if you need overall help, or a specialist if you feel you need specific help like marketing. Reconnect with distant family. Get spiritually recentered.

Now maybe a good time to do a deep clean on your business. If you own a restaurant, pull all your equipment from the wall and clean behind that greasy frier and refrigerator. If you have inventory, get it straightened up, pull inactive SKUs and sell them off online if you can. Take a close look at your shop floor to see if there is a better way to improve the flow of production.

Now is NOT a time for deer-in-the-headlights paralysis!

If you need inspiration, reach out to someone you can trust!

Ralph C. Watson, Jr.     404.520.1030

Ralph.Watson@BeGreaterFaster.com

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Jim Weber – Managing Partner, ITB Partners

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