Category: Planning

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The Economy, Inflation, and Interest Rates Market Commentary – April 23, 2020

 

With each passing week, the economic damage wrought by the Coronavirus and the resulting shutdowns grows larger. It’s not just businesses, both small to large, feeling the pain. Educational institutions, hospitals, churches, not-for-profits, and state and local governments are all finding it hard to remain financially viable.

The US has essentially turned off broad swaths of the private sector – the ultimate and only source of income and wealth creation. Without the private sector, there is no money to pay for government, schools, healthcare, or charitable organizations. To make up for it, the US has resorted to an open-ended expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet (and expanded their power) and huge increases in government borrowing and spending, the likes of which the US has never seen outside of wartime.

As in 2008, many are worried that huge increases in Quantitative Easing and money growth, along with the purchasing of debt directly from the market, will lead to much higher inflation. However, at least for now, that doesn’t appear to be a problem. The consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.4% in March and is up only 1.5% from a year ago. This week, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil was trading at record low levels. This suggests another negative number for the CPI in April.

But the drop in measured consumer prices in March was not just driven by lower energy prices. Other factors included lower prices for hotels, airline fares, and clothing. What do all these categories have in common? A massive drop in customers due to the shutdown.

Sure, hotels are cheap today, but almost no one is using them; hotel occupancy rates are down about 70% from a year ago. Yes, anyone who flies can get cheap seats, but the number of people going through TSA checkpoints is down 96% from a year ago. Clothing prices fell 2% in March as sales at clothing & accessory stores fell 50%. Who had time to buy clothes when you had to stock up on groceries and toilet paper?!?

In other words, prices for the actual items people bought in March probably did not fall as much as the CPI report suggested, and the same argument will probably apply to April, as well. Bottom line: in the near term, while it may look like deflation, that’s not true for the average consumer.

As I look further out, official measures of prices will eventually turn back up. I see multiple broad forces at work on consumer price inflation, which should prevent us from lurching into either ultra-high inflation or Great-Depression-style persistent deflation.

Obviously the Fed’s actions will boost various measures of the money supply. And the unusually generous unemployment benefits for many workers who have recently lost their jobs means those businesses that are trying to ramp up production will have to offer higher wages than usual to attract workers, which could feed through to higher end-prices.

However, in spite of these reasons to fear higher inflation, there is one big reason to avoid fearing hyperinflation: the demand for holding money balances, by both individuals and companies, is going sky high. The precedent of shutting down the economy will make cash King. That’s the only way to survive. So, yes, the money supply will be much higher, but velocity will be much lower; people will hold cash dear.

While I think inflation measures will head towards 3.0% in 2021, higher than it was immediately prior to the Coronavirus, hyperinflation is unlikely.

Interest rates will go up eventually, too, but don’t expect a sharp rebound. After the Great Recession, the Fed didn’t raise short-term rates again until late 2015, when the unemployment rate hit 5.0%. After the expected spike in joblessness in the next couple of months, it’ll be a long time before we get back to 5.0% unemployment. Meanwhile, having witnessed two massive recessions in a row, investors will place an even larger premium on safety and risk-aversion than they have for the past decade, which will hold the 10-year yield down relative to the economic fundamentals we’ll see in the eventual recovery.

We’ve never seen an economic shutdown like this before. The ability of people and the government to panic like this changes nearly every economic calculation. For inflation, there are forces going both ways. Only time will ultimately tell.
Kevin Garrett – Integrated Financial Group
About Kevin

Kevin was listed in 

The Wall Street Journal as “One of the Financial Advisors In The Southeast That You Need To Know” 

Kevin was listed in Forbes Magazine’s Annual Financial Edition as a Five Star Financial Advisor  

 

My firm specializes in working with people that experience what we call “Sudden Income.” Typically the income came from one of these events:

1) Accessing and Managing Retirement Assets
2) A Performance Contract (Typically a Sports or Entertainment Contract)
3) Divorce Settlement
4) Inheritance or Insurance Payout
5) Sale of a Business or Stock Options
6) A Personal Injury Settlement

I believe the unique nature of these events requires specialized professional experience, empathy, and communication to deal with both the financial changes and the life changes that inevitably come with them.

My clients value my ability to simplify complex strategies into an actionable plan. They also appreciate that I am open, non-judging, and easy to talk to about their dreams and fears. Each client defines financial success differently and my goal is to guide them from where they are now to where they want to be. As my client’s advisor, my goal is to provide them with a lifetime income stream, improving returns, protecting their funds, and managing taxes.

 

Firm Specialties:

  • Retirement Planning For Business Owners & Executives
  • Woman’s Unique Financial Planning Needs
  • Professional Athletes
  • Investment/Asset Allocation Advice
  • Estate Planning
  • Risk Management
  • Strategic Planning

Kevin has been awarded the FIVE Star Professional Wealth Manager in Atlanta Magazine in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019.

 

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of Five Star Wealth Managers.
KEVIN GARRETT, AWMA, CFS

Integrated Financial Group

200 Ashford Center North, Ste. 400 | Atlanta, GA 30338

Phone | 770.353.6311

Email | kgarrett@intfingroup.com

Website | kevingarrettifg.com

 

 

 

 

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Business & The Virus

A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself (or ‘seeks refuge’): but the simple pass on, and are punished.  Proverbs 22:3

Ralph Watson

Regardless of where Covid-19 originated, it is an actual virus and it is among us.

Mass hysteria has gripped our country emptying our grocery stores and gun shops and tanking our economy. I’m not making a political statement nor placing blame.  I am simply acknowledging the current reality of our world and the tragic effect it is having on our businesses, large and small.

Let me invite you to step away from the madness for a few minutes for a dispassionate chat about our current situation.

At this point, there is precious little we can do with the country on lockdown.  Our customers are not circulating in the marketplace, but are rather cocooned in their homes possibly shopping online. That doesn’t mean we can’t do ANYthing!

In his seminal book, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, Stephen Covey presented his Time Management Matrix exposing the relationship between Urgent tasks and Important tasks.

Quadrant I was the “Urgent & Important” containing all the fires that business owners face all day long: operational breakdowns, customer complaints, employee disagreements, accounts receivables, job bidding, and the list goes on ad infinitum! This is the quadrant in which we spend most of our waking business hours.

Quadrant II was the “Important but NOT Urgent” containing – honestly – all the most important issues of life: date night with the spouse, children’s ball game or dance recital, thinking & planning, reading important literature, praying or meditating, taking care of our health and on it goes.

The paradox of these two quadrants is that the ONLY way to get Quadrant I under control is to camp out in Quadrant II and DO the Important work of strategic business planning and management self-improvement! As you are able to become proactive and look down the road to see potential dangers, you are able to make those provisions to avoid the fires and reduce the size and tyranny of Quadrant I.

Although this may be the first time our current living generation has seen what is happening, it is not the first time for our country.  Let me acknowledge that during the Great Depression, there were bakeries that went out of business – but there were bakeries that survived. There were clothing stores that went out of business, but there were clothing stores that made it.

The point is that no business segment vanished. Some businesses in every category made it in spite of so many of their competitors folding for good.  So while we are all currently forced out of Quadrant I, now is a great time to take full advantage of the situation to get seriously deep into Quadrant II and not squander this unique opportunity to Be Greater Faster!

Read a management book. Call friends who own businesses to talk about common issues. Engage with a professional consultant – a generalist if you need overall help, or a specialist if you feel you need specific help like marketing. Reconnect with distant family. Get spiritually recentered.

Now maybe a good time to do a deep clean on your business. If you own a restaurant, pull all your equipment from the wall and clean behind that greasy frier and refrigerator. If you have inventory, get it straightened up, pull inactive SKUs and sell them off online if you can. Take a close look at your shop floor to see if there is a better way to improve the flow of production.

Now is NOT a time for deer-in-the-headlights paralysis!

If you need inspiration, reach out to someone you can trust!

Ralph C. Watson, Jr.     404.520.1030

Ralph.Watson@BeGreaterFaster.com

Thank you for visiting our blog.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner, ITB Partners

I hope you enjoyed our point of view and would like to receive regular posts directly to your email inbox.  Toward this end, put your contact information on my mailing list.

Your feedback helps me continue to publish articles that you want to read.  Your input is very important to me so; please leave a comment.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner, ITB Partners

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Do You Plan to Achieve Your New Year’s Resolutions?

Goal Setting

It’s that time again! Time to make New Year’s resolutions.  I suppose I’m like most people who revel in the excitement of starting a new year. In many respects, the new year offers the promise of a new beginning or an opportunity for change. It’s fun to share New Year’s resolutions and I’m sure that we’re all serious about achieving our goals.  Regrettably, within a few months, most people have given up on their New Year’s resolutions. Business, on the other hand, is a different story. Companies don’t have New Year’s Resolutions.  They have a vision and objectives.  My experience is that a business is more likely to achieve its goals.  Why is that?

I talked with many people over the past few weeks and have learned much about their plans for 2020.  My friend Faith plans to start a supper club to explore new food dishes and to get back to the art of dining at home.  One of my Associates at ITB Partners has created a strategy to develop multiple blogs, monetized through advertising and affiliate programs. He realizes that becoming profitable may take as much as two years, but he is excited about his prospects.

I am working with clients who want to change careers in 2020. Some are between situations and have the flexibility to explore new options while others are gainfully employed but desire a better situation.

These conversations were most interesting. Of course, the most typical resolutions are about personal development; simplifying lives, losing weight, improving diets, and to follow a healthier lifestyle. Continuing education and developing new skills are also popular.  I also enjoyed hearing from those who didn’t have plans to change anything other than to do better executing their current strategies.

My favorite morning talk show host is changing his strategy to include more knowledgeable pundits who can talk from a strategic perspective. I have a few initiatives that I want to pursue, including a seminar program to attract more clients.

While preparing my thoughts for this post, I found an article that listed 20 goals for entrepreneurs in 2020.  Whereas the goals proposed are relevant for most, the focus of the article was on goal setting.  The article even recapped the SMART formula.  It didn’t devote any ink on how to achieve those goals.  Maybe that is part of the problem.

Exploring this issue over the Holidays, I reviewed my favorite YouTube and podcast channels. One point that resonated profoundly was made by James Clear, the author of Atomic Habits. He talks about making small, manageable changes that generate other changes, which cumulatively make a big impact. I like that idea. I like the thought of finding a linchpin to provide leverage for other goals.

Another point Clear makes is that one needs a system to achieve their goals. This opinion is shared by Scott Adams, the creator of the Dilbert cartoon.  Adams is much more direct as he says “goals are useless, without a system.”  I concur with this point; a system is required to achieve a goal. Another word for a system is routine.

I find this to be a valid perspective! It reminds me of my early career in strategic planning and analysis. The planning process we followed included strategies and tactics (a system) to ensure the desired result. We also established timetables and mechanisms to track our progress. It was a useful process that required serious thought about how to realize our goals. We had a system. Our focus was on executing the strategy.

This year, my primary resolution is to lose the ten pounds I gained between Halloween and New Year’s Day.  I am confident I will be successful, as I have a plan and a system to achieve that goal.  I have several important business goals for 2020 as well. I haven’t completed the plan to achieve those goals yet. However, as I consider planning one of my greatest strengths, I am confident that I will achieve those goals as well.

Thank you for visiting our blog.

I hope you enjoyed our point of view and would like to receive regular posts directly to your email inbox.  Toward this end, put your contact information on my mailing list.

Your feedback helps me continue to publish articles that you want to read.  Your input is very important to me so; please leave a comment.

Jim Weber – Managing Partner, ITB Partners

 

Jim Weber – Managing Partner, ITB Partners