Inflation is not dead. It is not gone. It has not been tamed. I know it seems like it, especially after the past few decades which generated in many an “inflation-complacency” that feels justified. After all, following the 2008 Financial Panic, many predicted Quantitative Easing would cause hyper-inflation.
When the Fed boosted the Monetary Base by more than $3 trillion dollars during Quantitative Easing 1, 2 & 3, and the federal budget moved to a huge deficit, gold and silver commercials proliferated. So did predictions of a collapsing dollar. But inflation never came. Since the end of the 2008-09 financial panic, the Consumer Price Index has increased by an average of just 1.7% per year, falling short of the Fed’s 2% target.
During the 2020 COVID-induced round of Fed money printing, instead of using QE to put reserves in the banking system, the Fed financed government programs to fund loans to businesses and direct payments to individuals. As a result, the money supply as measured by M2 has grown 26.3% in the past year, the fastest annual growth I can find in US history, and roughly double the pace of M2 growth the US experienced during the 1970s.
According to those who believe in Modern Monetary Theory – (which isn’t all that modern, btw), and is just vaguely a theory – the US can increase real output enough to absorb it. In other words, they say that while inflation is “too much money chasing too few goods” – they expect the output of goods to increase enough to keep inflation low.
I find this impossible to believe. In fact, I think many are living in denial. Inflation is already on the rise. In the past six months, the Consumer Price Index is up 3.6% at an annual rate and if it rises a modest 0.2% per month between January and May, it will be up 3.4% over 12 months. Part of this is because COVID shutdowns led to weak inflation in early 2020, but I expect inflation to move higher in 2021.
But, in addition to M2 growth, incomes and savings have increased, while production has not. Demand is exceeding supply. All personal income combined – wages & salaries, employee benefits, small business income, rents, interest, dividends, and transfer payments – was up 6.3% in 2020 versus 2019. Total after-tax income was up 7.2% in 2020, the most for any year since 2000.
Combined, Americans saved about $2.9 trillion in 2020, more than doubling the previous record high of $1.2 trillion in 2018. As of the third quarter of 2020, the amount Americans held in checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposits, and money market funds was up $2.8 trillion from the year prior. Add another $1.9 trillion in federal government stimulus spending (borrowing from the future, to spend today) and the US is awash in cash.
Unfortunately, in spite of a strong recovery in output, industrial production is 3.3% below pre-COVID levels, while real GDP is 2.5% below. In other words, demand is OK, it is supply that’s still hurting – a perfect recipe for inflation.
All this money printing threatens to eventually create a sugar high in equities. We aren’t there yet, but markets are floating on a sea of new money. Inflation hedges (real estate, commodities, materials companies) will do well. Traditional fixed income (long-term bonds) is at risk. The return of inflation is a very real threat to the long-term health of the US economy, and something you will hear me talking about more in the months ahead..
Integrated Financial Group
My firm specializes in working with people that experience what we call “Sudden Income.” Typically the income came from one of these events:
1) Accessing and Managing Retirement Assets
2) A Performance Contract (Typically a Sports or Entertainment Contract)
3) Divorce Settlement
4) Inheritance or Insurance Payout
5) Sale of a Business or Stock Options
6) A Personal Injury Settlement
I believe the unique nature of these events requires specialized professional experience, empathy, and communication to deal with both the financial changes and the life changes that inevitably come with them.
My clients value my ability to simplify complex strategies into an actionable plan. They also appreciate that I am open, non-judging, and easy to talk to about their dreams and fears. Each client defines financial success differently and my goal is to guide them from where they are now to where they want to be. As my client’s advisor, my goal is to provide them with a lifetime income stream, improving returns, protecting their funds, and managing taxes.
Firm Specialties:
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- Retirement Planning For Business Owners & Executives
- Woman’s Unique Financial Planning Needs
- Professional Athletes
- Investment/Asset Allocation Advice
- Estate Planning
- Risk Management
- Strategic Planning
Kevin was listed in The Wall Street Journal as “One of the Financial Advisors In The Southeast That You Need To Know”
Kevin was listed in Forbes Magazine’s Annual Financial Edition as a Five Star Financial Advisor
Kevin has been awarded the Five Star Professional Wealth Manager in Atlanta Magazine in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017,2018, and 2019.
Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of Five Star Wealth Managers.
KEVIN GARRETT, AWMA, CFS
Integrated Financial Group
200 Ashford Center North, Ste. 400 | Atlanta, GA 30338
Phone | 770.353.6311
Email | kgarrett@intfingroup.com
Website | kevingarrettifg.com